Who tops more, Draco or Harry? - HD-smoochfest analysis

[snowgall]

Once again it's time to find out Who tops more in hd-smoochfest fics, Draco or Harry?

This is the second set of HD-fest data we've looked at, the first being data from hd_fan_fair, and the results of that study can be found here. (The impetus for that project came from my original "Who Tops More" post).

If you want to know more about how all of this data was collected and labeled, see the FAQ I wrote up for the hd-fan-fair project. All of it still holds true for the hd-smoochfest project as well.

The data from HD-fan-fair included 231 fics from 5 years of fests, while hd_smoochfest includes 348 fics from 6 years of fests. So this was a bigger project providing much more data than before. Huge thanks once again to (in alpha order) birdsofshore, cagnurit, frnklymrshnkly, germankitty, gracerene, iwao, khalulu, laurelgreengras, lordhellebore, and nia_kantorka for being awesome and contributing to the spreadsheet. I'm constantly amazed at all we've been able to accomplish through crowd-sourcing! If I left out anyone who contributed, please let me know so I can thank you too!

Results
Harry is still the reigning champ of topping :) (i.e. bottom!Draco is more common than bottom!Harry).

Smoochfest Table

Year	bottom!Draco	bottom!Harry	switching	Total (top/bottom)	Total (all fics)
2009	09 (56%)	06 (38%)	01 (06%)	16	50
2010	09 (39%)	12 (52%)	02 (09%)	23	65
2011	10 (44%)	09 (39%)	04 (17%)	23	60
2012	16 (64%)	06 (24%)	03 (12%)	25	70
2013	20 (71%)	05 (18%)	03 (11%)	28	64
2014	06 (46%)	01 (08%)	06 (46%)	13	39
Overall	70 (55%)	39 (30%)	19 (15%)	128	348

Note that the "Total (top/bottom)" column is only counting the total number of fics which had clear
top/bottom/switching action going on. "Total (all fics)" counts all the fics posted to the fest that year.

Last time I argued that the proportion of bottom!Harry fics seemed to be increasing with time (with a weird anomaly in 2013), but this time I'm not so sure. As you can see when comparing the graphs below, the percentages of bottom!Draco fics in HD-smoochfest over time are reasonably similar to the percentages of bottom!Draco fics in HD-fan-fair over time (data shown in the blue bars). However, the percentages of bottom!Harry fics actually vary quite drastically between Smoochfest and Fan-fair (data shown in the red bars).

Graphs
Sorry for the absence of year labels for the odd numbered years. Google docs created these graphs for me and I still haven't figured out how to force the labels I want.

And for comparison sake, here's the graph of the hd-fan-fair data:

Things of note:

• In Smoochfest 2010, there are actually more bottom!Harry fics than bottom!Draco. That's the first time we've seen that in any of the data analyzed so far.


• After that, the percentage of bottom!Harry fics in Smoochfest (red bars, top graph) decreases markedly from one year to the next. In comparison, the percentages of bottom!Harry fics in Fan-fair (red bars, bottom graph) were more stable, regardless of the changes in bottom!Draco.


• 2013 is still a powerhouse of a year for bottom!Draco. This seems to be a thing that isn't just confined to statistical oddities of Fan-fair.


• Switching seems to have been much more popular in 2014 than in any other year, but keep in mind that 2014 also had far fewer fics in the fest than in any other year, and also far fewer fics with any clear topping or bottoming.


• The popularity of high ratings and the popularity of penetrative sex scenes don't seem to align. That is, 2013 had the smallest percentage of NC-17 fics of any Smoochfest year (30%) (see ratings chart in this post), yet it also had the greatest number of fics with penetrative sex scenes (28) of any year.
  
  
  Once again, that's just about all I can do in terms of analysis - I don't do sociology or psychology, so please let me know what it all means to you in the comments :)
  
  As before, I'm very interested in continuing this project with data from another fest. If people aren't bored yet and would be interested in contributing to a third crowd-sourcing project, please let me know! The next fest I'd like to tackle would be hd_holidays/hd_erised, but those are HUGE fests, and would be even more work. So if there's not enough interest to sustain it, better I know that now. Who's with me?
  
  

  ---

  
  More in this series:
  Crowd-sourcing Smoochfest Proposal - Spreadsheet link (f-locked)
  Progress Report #1
  Progress Report #2 - Ratings chart
  Progress Report #3 - Nearly There!
  Progress Report #4 - Final data double-check!

Comments

[cagnurit.livejournal.com]

Your last note about 'high rating' (aka NC-17) & 'penetration' not linear, I think it's because of the subjective rating of the authors? Some NC-17 fics are non-penetration or just kissing, and sometimes some R fics have graphic sex scenes.


Whether the next project will be 7 years of HD holidays or 2 years of HD erised (and I count, 81 fics), I'm with you all the way!!!

[snowgall]

Yes, the meanings of ratings are quite inconsistent author to author, so just because something is rated NC-17 doesn't necessarily mean there will be penetrative sex. In fact, I've even read some PG-13 rated fics where the sex is pretty heavily implied, so who knows!

And I'm so glad you're on board for another round of fest data! I will contact you soon about getting the next spreadsheet set up.

[birdsofshore]

Well, you know my contribution has been negligible, but I'm happy to help if I can with another project!

These results are as interesting as before, and wtf happened in 2013? So strange.

[snowgall]

Yay! And you know, there are no negligible contributions :)

Yes, figuring out what's going on with 2013 is one of the reasons I want to collect yet more data. Is this just a weird statistical anomaly, or is it pervasive over many fests?

Maybe it's all because of one prolific mad author! (doubtful, but wouldn't that be a hoot?)

[this-bloody-cat.livejournal.com]

I was quite shocked about 2010! :)

[snowgall]

Yeah, me too! In each of the past data sets, I always thought that there was a slight trend towards more bottom!Harry but he never caught up. But now it looks like he *had* been at parity and is now losing ground! So I just don't know what to think.

Definitely need more data :)

[this-bloody-cat.livejournal.com]

I'll certainly be looking forward to that! :)

[nia_kantorka]

I haven'T contributed very much to your big spreadsheets, but I'm in for another round.

To make things easier. My erised from 2014 was NC-17 and bottom!Harry (switching implied but not shown).

Haha, I like that Smooch 2010 is an eloper. Harry's always good for a surprise.

Are you going to collect the data of Smooch 2015/FanFair2015/Erised2015 too? We should probably fill the sheets out while reading. :D

[snowgall]

Oh yes, I think it would be great to keep adding data on current fests to these spreadsheets. Smoochfest is coming up first - I think anyone can add in the data as it comes in, and we can build it up together. It'll be great!

And thank you for giving me the data on your erised fic. I'll be sure to add it in when we create the next spreadsheet. ♥

[frnklymrshnkly.livejournal.com]

I only filled in a few blanks, but I'd be happy to fill in a few more if you start a sheet for another fest. Fandom stats are love--thank you for putting these together! <3

[snowgall]

Terrific! The more people involved the better. Holidays and erised have run for nine years now, and some of the fests produced over 70 fics, so this is going to be a LOT of data. I'm kinda excited about it actually :)

[gracerene]

So interesting! I'd def be down for another round. ;)

Hmm, 2010 is surprising with the more bottom!harry, but other than that, the data seems fairly aligned with what I'd already thought. :D

[snowgall]

Awesome! Thank you for agreeing to help out - we're going to need it!

Yeah, 2010 is definitely a surprise. I'm very interested to see if the hd-holidays data is similar or not!

[kitty_fic]

I love these analysis posts <3 Great job snowgall and all who worked on them!

[snowgall]

Thank you! It's always nice to know that more people than me find this sort of thing interesting :)

[dicta-contrion.livejournal.com]

Oh, very interesting!! The more data we have the less inclined I am to speculate about the whys, which I actually quite like. And it makes me want more data!

Speaking of which, now that the semester's about wrapped up, would be totally down to contribute to a hols/erised project!

[snowgall]

I know what you mean. For some reason, the more data I have, the more data I want!

And yay for semester's end and yay for you being able to help with the next dataset :)

The Daily Snitch, Monday, May 18, 2015

[livejournal.livejournal.com]

User capitu referenced to your post from The Daily Snitch, Monday, May 18, 2015 (http://daily-snitch.livejournal.com/861317.html) saying: [...] do. Not ever. Discussions: • posted Who tops more, Draco or Harry? - HD-smoochfest analysis [...]

[amorette.livejournal.com]

Hmm. I suppose this is why a fest like dracotops-harry is useful, because those who love harry bottoming or draco topping him just don't get as much organically in other fests.

I love this, thank you for doing it, and to everyone who put this together <3

I'm really tickled that switching was super popular in 2014 :D I love switching.

[snowgall]

Yeah, Vaysh was explaining that to me a few months back when I first started this. I hadn't really understood at first how large a discrepancy there was between bottom!Draco and bottom!Harry.

And I'm just happy when a fic has sex, any kind :)

[amorette.livejournal.com]

"And I'm just happy when a fic has sex, any kind :)"

Hahaha yes :D. Porn foreverrrrr!

Between the two, I must say that I personally really enjoy bottom Draco. But my ideal is when they switch and share that top position.

[carowren.livejournal.com]

Even if we can't draw definite conclusions about noticeable overall trends- I still enjoy looking at the numbers and graphs :D There seems to be smaller fluctuations year to year (and even from one fest to another)- like fandom is constantly reacting to what is being produced. Looking at the graphs for the two fests side by - 2014 is quite interesting. The lowest percent of bottom!harry in Smoochfest but the highest in fanfair!
The one variable that seems to be mostly constant for Smoochfest is the overall number of fics featuring any type of penetrative sex (roughly 32-44%). Surprisingly little variation. It's not nearly as constant for fanfair though. :)

[snowgall]

It is an interesting question of whether there is any sort of unconscious reaction in fandom to what is produced year to year. I don't know how to study that, but I think it's a fascinating idea :)

And your observations are all excellent:

- the fact that 2014 had fewest bottom!Harry in Smooch and the most in fan-fair exemplifies one of the reasons I want to keep collecting more data: so I can eventually combine all the sets into a larger dataset and see what the overall trends may be.

- very interesting point about how much penetrative sex does or doesn't go on each year and fest to fest. I also wonder about the larger trends there, and also if there are any trends towards other forms of sexual activity instead. More blowjobs? More rimming? More frottage? Who knows :)

[carowren.livejournal.com]

The same idea about the larger data set came into my mind when I was considering your graphs earlier so I'm thrilled to hear that's where this is heading. I like how you think snowgall :)

[amorette.livejournal.com]

Random additional comment -- Did you note anything on how many fics had no sex or low ratings?

[snowgall]

Definitely noted the ratings of each fic - there's a chart here.

And to a certain extent, we also kept track of how much and what kind of sex there was in each fic (which you can check out the spreadsheet, in the "top/bottom" column for notes). However, we were much more diligent about this for R and NC-17 rated fics, and not so much for PG-13 and lower.

For PG-13 and lower rated fics, I bascially just made the assumption that there wouldn't be any explicit penetrative sex. This was so that the data gathering could be completed more quickly. But if I had personally read the fic, I still made notes in the top/bottom column as to what (if anything) did happen. Usually this was just kissing, but occasionally there'd be more.

And that's where the problem lies, because not every author has a consistent definition for how fics should be rated. I sometimes read NC-17 fics that barely feel like an R, and on the flip side, I've read a few PG-13 fics that even though nothing is explicit, still manage to heavily imply certain actions and feel very very steamy indeed. So my assumption that no clear penetration goes on in PG-13 and lower fics might not always be totally accurate. I'm always happy for more data to be added to the spreadsheets about any fics of any rating though - I definitely like to have as much data as possible :)

[amorette.livejournal.com]

Yes, ratings are very subjective. And it's impossible for one person to read ALL these fics and get perfect data. And anyways, what you did manage is amazingly detailed.

[tsunatora.livejournal.com]

This is the reason why I see Bottom!Harry fics like treasure. I'm glad that there is a bottom!Harry fest it's so useful and wonderful!
2010 just shocked me really much, never in my life I saw more bottom!harry because I always know draco will always bottom more (I used to have a hard with that fact but now I okay with it, just a little sad)
I think most of people like Bottom!Draco because the first fanfic they read is Bottom!Draco, people usually searching high rating and more kudos stories when there is a Bottom!draco that has high rating kudos, people will think "Oh, this story maybe good because it has a lot kudos" so they read it and start to think Draco is a bottom.
Like me for simple, the very first Drarry I read, was "Will you be my daddy" but back there I didn't a thing about top and bottom. So the first fic I read was bottom!harry and then I started read more about bottom!draco (belived me lots of it) and i find i don't like bottom!draco.

[snowgall]

I definitely think that there's something about the first fic you read in a ship that maybe gets you thinking about that pairing in a particular way. So perhaps if you read bottom!Harry first, that's what you will prefer, and vice-versa. But some people don't have a preference, so that can't be the whole answer :)